For all the overheated criticism of this week's vote--some of it justified--there is this timely column from Jeff Pearlman at si.com. Fortunately, it's got a healthy dose of humor, especially for those of us not in the BBWAA.

The Results Are In

Congratulations to Andre Dawson on his deserved election to the Hall of Fame. The rest of the results had a few surprises, chiefly the inexplicable snub of Roberto Alomar. Apparently enough voters held the spitting incident against him to a degree that deprived him of joining the elite group of players elected in their first year of eligibility. It’s hard to justify that view, since by any estimation Alomar is one of the greatest 2nd basemen of the past 100 years. And while I haven’t touted Bert Blyleven’s candidacy, I’m surprised he fell short as well.

Farther down the ballot, one of the most interesting results is the one for first-timer Edgar Martinez. The Mariners DH did a more-than-respectable 36 percent on his first ballot, nearly half of the way to election. Once he settled in as a full-time DH, Martinez had many excellent seasons in his 30s. But Martinez got six times the votes of Harold Baines, another DH with some vastly superior career numbers, and nearly twice as many votes as Fred McGriff, a home run champ in each league with nearly 500 in his career. We’ll try to do more analysis of this vote in the coming week.

One Fan's Ballot

With the Hall of Fame results just days away, here are my thoughts on key candidates this year.

A Yes Vote
Roberto Alomar – An easy vote for one of the best 2B of all time.

Andre Dawson – Never mind the low on-base percentage (GMs and managers at the time didn’t worry about it either). Only Mays and Barry Bonds have hit 400 HRs and stolen 300 bases. He was a dominant slugger in his era.

Jack Morris – He was the ace of three World Series champs, and his heroic Game 7 in 1991 was a classic. With 254 victories, he’s more than qualified.

Others
Barry Larkin – A player should be in the hands-down elite category to win election his first year on the ballot. Larkin’s not quite in that category, but I expect I’d vote for him in the near future. An underrated, perennial All-Star.

Dave Parker – Never gave him much attention until Jim Rice’s election last year. With more hits, RBIs, batting titles and Gold Gloves than Rice, he’s got a pretty strong case. Both players had a significantly high share of the MVP vote during their careers, which attest to their statures within the game. I think I’m evolving into a yes vote…maybe next year.

Fred McGriff – Arguably the most interesting new name on this year's ballot. Since McGwire’s 583 HRs are viewed as tarnished but Rice’s 382 HRs are plenty good enough, what should we make of McGriff’s scandal-free 493 homers? Wouldn’t vote for him at this point but would like to see him stay on the ballot a while.

Bert Blyleven – See prior entry. Probably a good selection for the Veterans Committee as opposed to the writers.

The Blyleven Question

When you have a pitcher with close to 300 wins, multiple 20-win seasons, a few All-Star game appearances and a strong post-season record, you may expect him to reach the Hall of Fame, right?

Fans and baseball writers who support Bert Blyleven are essentially making that argument again this year, saying it’s time for the hurler to receive his place in baseball’s pantheon.

But wait….the person I’m describing in the opening paragraph isn’t Blyleven. It’s a different pitcher who was summarily dismissed by Hall voters, and who pitched in the same era as Blyleven, a player who in some ways has a stronger Hall case: Tommy John. Let’s look at some key numbers:

Blyleven: 287 wins, 3.31 career ERA, 2 All-Star games, 1 20-win season, 5 post-season victories

John: 288 wins, 3.34 career ERA, 4 All-Star games, 3 20-win seasons, 6 post-season victories

While a growing list of writers says it’s time to honor Blyleven, John never got more than 32% of the Hall of Fame vote in 15 years on the ballot--far short of the minimum for induction.

Of course, the two pitchers are different in one key respect. Blyleven was a right-hander with a lot of strikeouts. John earned one of the worst backhanded compliments you can offer: he was a “crafty lefthander.”

Blyleven’s fans sell the fact that his cachet was the strikeout. They’re right. But using that statistic is unfair to the vast majority of lefthanders this side of Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton.

From 1965, when John broke in as a regular, until 1992, when Blyleven retired, 17 different right-handers won strikeout titles in the major leagues. The list includes the cream of the era’s crop, including Hall of Famers like Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins and Phil Niekro, plus Roger Clemens and John Smoltz. The left-handers? Aside from Carlton, most titles were won by hard-throwing southpaws who flamed out long before Hall-worthiness, such as Sam McDowell and Mark Langston. No crafty southpaws in sight.

With 3,701 career strikeouts, Blyleven has the 3rd most of any right-handed pitcher. Third in career strikeouts among left-handers is….Mickey Lolich.

You can also argue that John, not Blyleven, had a far greater impact on the game. Faced with a career-ending injury in his early 30s, the lefty had the first ligament replacement surgery, now known as Tommy John surgery. At the time, the surgeon called it a “hundred to one shot.” It’s the doctor’s handiwork, of course, but 18 months of diligent rehab by John made it a success. Today the surgery is relatively common and has saved scores of careers.

Now Blyleven may deserve the Hall, but there’s a bit of unfairness here. Much like the Hall seems short of third basemen, it appears to have another weak spot with left-handers. Jim Kaat, a lefty who pitched in the same era, has much the same case as John. If Blyleven is elected this year, it means every eligible modern-era pitcher with 270 to 299 wins has made it to the Hall of Fame--except for the lefthanders.

Alomar: Still a Strong Case

It’s odd that after all that has happened in baseball during the past decade—steroids, steroid-related suspensions, congressional hearings and the like—that anyone still would get worked up about Roberto Alomar’s spitting on an umpire in 1996. Surely, Alomar was wrong and he got suspended. He and the umpire, John Hirschbeck, are now friends. But it’s curious that the issue still has legs as the 12-time All-Star second baseman appears on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time this year.

Alomar has some of the strongest credentials of any second base candidate in the past 50 years: a .300 lifetime average, 2,700+ hits, 1,500+ runs, 10 Gold Gloves and a key ingredient of two World Series champions. At a position where offense is often secondary, he was at the top of his class. According to baseball-reference.com, he has no truly similar player in baseball history. The closest is Derek Jeter, but it’s not a close fit. Watching Alomar play in Baltimore for three years, his defense was stellar even though his best offensive years were in Toronto and Cleveland.

Over the next few years, Hall of Fame voters will have plenty of time to agonize over sportsmanship issues of the candidates. Hopefully that won’t cloud their judgment of Alomar this year.

World Series Round-Up

The World Series put the spotlight on many potential Hall of Famers. Mariano Rivera, Pedro Martinez and Derek Jeter already are Hall bound, and A-Rod is likely. But there are a number of interesting players who are moving into that gray area of borderline candidate. A projection of their prospects:

Chase Utley – A great all-around 2nd baseman, Utley has the power and speed tools. What he needs is longevity. Given his go-for-broke style, that may be a challenge. He’ll have to stay healthy another six or seven years.

Jorge Posada – A key contributor to five World Series champions, Posada has played in the shadow of other stars for most of his career. He’ll probably need 300 career HRs to have a good shot. Right now he’s at 243.

Johnny Damon – Hard to believe this guy has almost 2,500 hits. He’ll need to get to 3,000, which is possible if he stays healthy. Staying in New York—with its high profile—would help his prospects.

Ryan Howard – Despite a disappointing series, he’s still a dominant force in the game. But his future is hard to predict. According to Baseball-reference.com, the players most similar to him at this stage are Richie Sexson and Cecil Fielder. The next two years should tell a lot about his HoF prospects.

C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee – The team aces have long roads ahead. Sabathia is a little younger and more durable. With 136 victories to date, he’s on course. But a 20-win season would be nice. Lee would have to maintain his 2008-’09 level for quite a few years. At age 31, he still has fewer than 100 victories.

Andy Pettitte – With the addition of the Division Series, players from this era have more playoff games than any previous group. Pettitte may be the test case to see how this affects HoF voting. He’s already won a regular season’s worth of playoff games – 18. The HGH admission will hurt him some. Probably needs 275 regular season and playoff victories to have a chance. Right now he’s at 247.

More from the Hot Corner

In the continuing saga of A-Rod--this time for his hip injury—si.com’s fine coverage includes this interesting tidbit. “Only three third basemen age 33 or older ever managed more than two seasons with at least 150 games: Brooks Robinson, Pete Rose and Mike Schmidt.”

That’s the list. By age 33, players on baseball’s hot corner start to fade under the rigors of the position. George Brett? Played mostly at 1B after age 33. Wade Boggs, Eddie Mathews, even Pie Traynor – all faced challenges paying this demanding position as they approached their mid-30s. Let’s wish Chipper Jones some luck this season. Now 36, he’s averaged just over 100 games at 3B each of the past five years.

This is yet another strong argument that Baseball Hall of Fame voters need to rethink their standards for third basemen. Not counting Negro Leaguers, the Hall has just 10 third basemen, one of whom (Freddie Lindstrom) played only 800 games at the position. Compare this with the Hall’s 21 shortstops and 18 first basemen. This is not just a roundabout way to argue for Ron Santo’s induction. (Heck, I’m tempted to tout the record of Matt Williams--almost). Hall voters want a third baseman to have the bat of a slugging 1B/OF/DH. If not, they’d better have 3,000 hits or one of the best gloves of all time. It’s a standard applied at no other position in the game.