With summer heating up, it’s time to look at some of the key newcomers on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot. One of the more intriguing names expected is Larry Walker, who won an MVP and three batting crowns, plus a HR title in a 17-year career. One of the National League’s most consistent run producers while he played, Walker retired with a .313 batting average and 383 HRs plus had good speed in his prime (230 SBs) and strong enough defense to win 7 Gold Gloves.
And yet…..the numbers don’t tell the whole story. I’m talking about the Coors Field effect. Walker played for the Rockies when Colorado’s offense was stratospheric, perhaps too much so. Due to the mile-high effect and low humidity, baseballs sailed around and out of Coors when Walker played there. Once the team instituted its famous “humidor” in 2002 to store baseballs at a set temperature and humidity, the Rockies’ offense began to look average. Walker’s numbers also declined, in both batting average and homers, before he moved on to St. Louis in 2004.
It’s a little mind-boggling to look at Walker’s Coors Field production. He hit a ridiculous .381 there, with a .710 slugging percentage over his career. His batting average at other parks was a more pedestrian .282. He’s also not alone with this disparity. Coors sluggers of the late 1990s and early 2000s have similar numbers, including Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla. Perhaps this factored into Walker’s perception among baseball writers. Despite his 1997 MVP, he never came close to the award again despite some monster numbers, including batting averages as high as .379.
It’ll be interesting to see how voters treat Walker, but I’d put his candidacy on the side burner for now.
Friday
For all the overheated criticism of this week's vote--some of it justified--there is this timely column from Jeff Pearlman at si.com. Fortunately, it's got a healthy dose of humor, especially for those of us not in the BBWAA.
Thursday
The Results Are In
Congratulations to Andre Dawson on his deserved election to the Hall of Fame. The rest of the results had a few surprises, chiefly the inexplicable snub of Roberto Alomar. Apparently enough voters held the spitting incident against him to a degree that deprived him of joining the elite group of players elected in their first year of eligibility. It’s hard to justify that view, since by any estimation Alomar is one of the greatest 2nd basemen of the past 100 years. And while I haven’t touted Bert Blyleven’s candidacy, I’m surprised he fell short as well.
Farther down the ballot, one of the most interesting results is the one for first-timer Edgar Martinez. The Mariners DH did a more-than-respectable 36 percent on his first ballot, nearly half of the way to election. Once he settled in as a full-time DH, Martinez had many excellent seasons in his 30s. But Martinez got six times the votes of Harold Baines, another DH with some vastly superior career numbers, and nearly twice as many votes as Fred McGriff, a home run champ in each league with nearly 500 in his career. We’ll try to do more analysis of this vote in the coming week.
Farther down the ballot, one of the most interesting results is the one for first-timer Edgar Martinez. The Mariners DH did a more-than-respectable 36 percent on his first ballot, nearly half of the way to election. Once he settled in as a full-time DH, Martinez had many excellent seasons in his 30s. But Martinez got six times the votes of Harold Baines, another DH with some vastly superior career numbers, and nearly twice as many votes as Fred McGriff, a home run champ in each league with nearly 500 in his career. We’ll try to do more analysis of this vote in the coming week.
Monday
One Fan's Ballot
With the Hall of Fame results just days away, here are my thoughts on key candidates this year.
A Yes Vote
Roberto Alomar – An easy vote for one of the best 2B of all time.
Andre Dawson – Never mind the low on-base percentage (GMs and managers at the time didn’t worry about it either). Only Mays and Barry Bonds have hit 400 HRs and stolen 300 bases. He was a dominant slugger in his era.
Jack Morris – He was the ace of three World Series champs, and his heroic Game 7 in 1991 was a classic. With 254 victories, he’s more than qualified.
Others
Barry Larkin – A player should be in the hands-down elite category to win election his first year on the ballot. Larkin’s not quite in that category, but I expect I’d vote for him in the near future. An underrated, perennial All-Star.
Dave Parker – Never gave him much attention until Jim Rice’s election last year. With more hits, RBIs, batting titles and Gold Gloves than Rice, he’s got a pretty strong case. Both players had a significantly high share of the MVP vote during their careers, which attest to their statures within the game. I think I’m evolving into a yes vote…maybe next year.
Fred McGriff – Arguably the most interesting new name on this year's ballot. Since McGwire’s 583 HRs are viewed as tarnished but Rice’s 382 HRs are plenty good enough, what should we make of McGriff’s scandal-free 493 homers? Wouldn’t vote for him at this point but would like to see him stay on the ballot a while.
Bert Blyleven – See prior entry. Probably a good selection for the Veterans Committee as opposed to the writers.
A Yes Vote
Roberto Alomar – An easy vote for one of the best 2B of all time.
Andre Dawson – Never mind the low on-base percentage (GMs and managers at the time didn’t worry about it either). Only Mays and Barry Bonds have hit 400 HRs and stolen 300 bases. He was a dominant slugger in his era.
Jack Morris – He was the ace of three World Series champs, and his heroic Game 7 in 1991 was a classic. With 254 victories, he’s more than qualified.
Others
Barry Larkin – A player should be in the hands-down elite category to win election his first year on the ballot. Larkin’s not quite in that category, but I expect I’d vote for him in the near future. An underrated, perennial All-Star.
Dave Parker – Never gave him much attention until Jim Rice’s election last year. With more hits, RBIs, batting titles and Gold Gloves than Rice, he’s got a pretty strong case. Both players had a significantly high share of the MVP vote during their careers, which attest to their statures within the game. I think I’m evolving into a yes vote…maybe next year.
Fred McGriff – Arguably the most interesting new name on this year's ballot. Since McGwire’s 583 HRs are viewed as tarnished but Rice’s 382 HRs are plenty good enough, what should we make of McGriff’s scandal-free 493 homers? Wouldn’t vote for him at this point but would like to see him stay on the ballot a while.
Bert Blyleven – See prior entry. Probably a good selection for the Veterans Committee as opposed to the writers.
Thursday
The Blyleven Question
When you have a pitcher with close to 300 wins, multiple 20-win seasons, a few All-Star game appearances and a strong post-season record, you may expect him to reach the Hall of Fame, right?
Fans and baseball writers who support Bert Blyleven are essentially making that argument again this year, saying it’s time for the hurler to receive his place in baseball’s pantheon.
But wait….the person I’m describing in the opening paragraph isn’t Blyleven. It’s a different pitcher who was summarily dismissed by Hall voters, and who pitched in the same era as Blyleven, a player who in some ways has a stronger Hall case: Tommy John. Let’s look at some key numbers:
Blyleven: 287 wins, 3.31 career ERA, 2 All-Star games, 1 20-win season, 5 post-season victories
John: 288 wins, 3.34 career ERA, 4 All-Star games, 3 20-win seasons, 6 post-season victories
While a growing list of writers says it’s time to honor Blyleven, John never got more than 32% of the Hall of Fame vote in 15 years on the ballot--far short of the minimum for induction.
Of course, the two pitchers are different in one key respect. Blyleven was a right-hander with a lot of strikeouts. John earned one of the worst backhanded compliments you can offer: he was a “crafty lefthander.”
Blyleven’s fans sell the fact that his cachet was the strikeout. They’re right. But using that statistic is unfair to the vast majority of lefthanders this side of Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton.
From 1965, when John broke in as a regular, until 1992, when Blyleven retired, 17 different right-handers won strikeout titles in the major leagues. The list includes the cream of the era’s crop, including Hall of Famers like Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins and Phil Niekro, plus Roger Clemens and John Smoltz. The left-handers? Aside from Carlton, most titles were won by hard-throwing southpaws who flamed out long before Hall-worthiness, such as Sam McDowell and Mark Langston. No crafty southpaws in sight.
With 3,701 career strikeouts, Blyleven has the 3rd most of any right-handed pitcher. Third in career strikeouts among left-handers is….Mickey Lolich.
You can also argue that John, not Blyleven, had a far greater impact on the game. Faced with a career-ending injury in his early 30s, the lefty had the first ligament replacement surgery, now known as Tommy John surgery. At the time, the surgeon called it a “hundred to one shot.” It’s the doctor’s handiwork, of course, but 18 months of diligent rehab by John made it a success. Today the surgery is relatively common and has saved scores of careers.
Now Blyleven may deserve the Hall, but there’s a bit of unfairness here. Much like the Hall seems short of third basemen, it appears to have another weak spot with left-handers. Jim Kaat, a lefty who pitched in the same era, has much the same case as John. If Blyleven is elected this year, it means every eligible modern-era pitcher with 270 to 299 wins has made it to the Hall of Fame--except for the lefthanders.
Fans and baseball writers who support Bert Blyleven are essentially making that argument again this year, saying it’s time for the hurler to receive his place in baseball’s pantheon.
But wait….the person I’m describing in the opening paragraph isn’t Blyleven. It’s a different pitcher who was summarily dismissed by Hall voters, and who pitched in the same era as Blyleven, a player who in some ways has a stronger Hall case: Tommy John. Let’s look at some key numbers:
Blyleven: 287 wins, 3.31 career ERA, 2 All-Star games, 1 20-win season, 5 post-season victories
John: 288 wins, 3.34 career ERA, 4 All-Star games, 3 20-win seasons, 6 post-season victories
While a growing list of writers says it’s time to honor Blyleven, John never got more than 32% of the Hall of Fame vote in 15 years on the ballot--far short of the minimum for induction.
Of course, the two pitchers are different in one key respect. Blyleven was a right-hander with a lot of strikeouts. John earned one of the worst backhanded compliments you can offer: he was a “crafty lefthander.”
Blyleven’s fans sell the fact that his cachet was the strikeout. They’re right. But using that statistic is unfair to the vast majority of lefthanders this side of Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton.
From 1965, when John broke in as a regular, until 1992, when Blyleven retired, 17 different right-handers won strikeout titles in the major leagues. The list includes the cream of the era’s crop, including Hall of Famers like Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins and Phil Niekro, plus Roger Clemens and John Smoltz. The left-handers? Aside from Carlton, most titles were won by hard-throwing southpaws who flamed out long before Hall-worthiness, such as Sam McDowell and Mark Langston. No crafty southpaws in sight.
With 3,701 career strikeouts, Blyleven has the 3rd most of any right-handed pitcher. Third in career strikeouts among left-handers is….Mickey Lolich.
You can also argue that John, not Blyleven, had a far greater impact on the game. Faced with a career-ending injury in his early 30s, the lefty had the first ligament replacement surgery, now known as Tommy John surgery. At the time, the surgeon called it a “hundred to one shot.” It’s the doctor’s handiwork, of course, but 18 months of diligent rehab by John made it a success. Today the surgery is relatively common and has saved scores of careers.
Now Blyleven may deserve the Hall, but there’s a bit of unfairness here. Much like the Hall seems short of third basemen, it appears to have another weak spot with left-handers. Jim Kaat, a lefty who pitched in the same era, has much the same case as John. If Blyleven is elected this year, it means every eligible modern-era pitcher with 270 to 299 wins has made it to the Hall of Fame--except for the lefthanders.
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